🔻 [Hunting for a quiet date] The model's 206 quiet days are not in winter?

The off-season is winter, or so the standard advice goes. Split the factor the model uses to pull crowds down into months, though, and the months that line up are not the ones you would guess. This is about where that season actually sits.

The season the model uses to pull the crowd down covers 206 days, 28% of the year. It averages Easy against Normal for the year, 2 levels apart. Of those 206 days, 205 — 100% — come in below the yearly average. Split by month, though, the winter months are not the ones that show up.

Of the 117 days of this season still ahead, the table lists the 40 quietest. Days on the same level are not ranked against each other. Each level is what we expect of that date, not a record of how many came.

• Sep 15TueEasyroom↓
• Sep 16WedEasyroom↓
• Sep 17ThuEasyroom↓
• Sep 18FriEasyroom↑
• Sep 19SatEasyroom↑
• Sep 23WedAutumn EquinoxEasyroom↓
• Sep 24ThuEasyroom↓
• Sep 25FriEasyroom↑
• Sep 27SunEasyroom↓
• Sep 29TueEasyroom↓
• Sep 30WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 1ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 2FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 4SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 5MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 6TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 7WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 8ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 9FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 11SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 12MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 13TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 14WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 15ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 16FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 17SatEasyroom↑
• Jul 19MonMarine DayEasyroom↓
• Jul 20TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 21WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 22ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 23FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 24SatEasyroom↑
• Jul 25SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 26MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 27TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 28WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 29ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 30FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 31SatEasyroom↑
• Aug 1SunEasyroom↓

🍃 28% of the year is "quiet season"!

The factor fires on 206 days, 28% of the 724 we score. The season averages Easy against Normal for the year. These 206 days are held below the yearly average as one block.

205 of them (100%) land below the yearly average. Of the 32 busiest days in the year, not one falls inside this season.

📆 And it is not winter!?

By month, the factor fires in only 5 of them: April, June, July, August, September. The largest block is July with 62 days.

July is the lowest at Easy; April the highest at Normal. Not a single day in December, January, February carries it. The quiet season is not the stretch most people picture.

🧐 So what about "winter is the off-season"?

Count by month and winter does come out low. That is a statement about months, not about this factor. The off-season and crowds by month handle the month ranking.

And a quiet season is not uniform. Split the 206 days by level and 18 of them sit in the heaviest band, Normal — 2 steps above the lightest day.

🛏️ A quiet season does not mean a cheap room!

Inside this season, 143 nights pull room rates down and 63 push them up. The park sits below the yearly average, yet 31% of the nights are still on the climbing side.

Picking a quiet season for the park does not make the room cheap by itself. Park crowds and room rates explains the mechanism; the mirror is counted in the busy season.

• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0❄️[Avoiding crowds] Same winter, but two steps apart!"January and February are quiet" is only half true. January really is quiet; February is the opposite. We tested the Lunar New Year theory and it did not hold.
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🍁[Autumn visitors] 105 of the 182 autumn days are quiet — but only through September?105 of the 182 autumn days land below the yearly average. By month, the quiet part stops after September. Counted day by day.
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🔺[If your dates can move] 31 of the year's 32 busiest days are in one season?31 of the year's 32 busiest days land inside the busy season. Even so, 53 days inside it come in under the yearly average. Counted across all 296 days.
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🎄[Visiting this winter] 8 of the 90 Christmas days come in under the yearly average?Of the 90 days in the Christmas season, 8 sit below the yearly average. The busiest lands on Dec 25 (Sat), the quietest on Nov 23 (Mon).
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🧩[Between events] 2 gaps, 16 days — but only 6 of them really empty?We have 3 verified events with 2 gaps between them, 16 days in all. Merchandise and menus for the next one land first, which cuts the gaps to 6 days.
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0📚[Going in Jan or Feb] 67 exam-season weekdays, above the yearly average?The 67 plain weekdays of January and February average above the yearly average. Only 30 beat it, short of half. Holidays, breaks and weekends removed.