🎌 [Holiday travelers] The last day won in all 15 runs!
School breaks get lumped together as the busy season. Split them into summer, winter and spring and they behave nothing alike — and the holiday runs matter more than any of them, with the softest day landing last every time.
What builds the peaks is the way the days off line up. Of the 7 busiest days, 3 sit inside a run of three days or more. There are 15 such runs, and in every one of them the softest day is the last. No exceptions. The three school breaks are not alike: winter reads Fairly busy, summer only Packed.
The first list groups the days of each run and marks the softest one; it covers the 12 runs still ahead. The second holds the 25 upcoming days out of the 32 in the year that reach the top level or the one below it, with nothing ranked inside a level. Both the marks and the levels are our forecast.
Each holiday run
Silver WeekSep 195
Sports Day, 3 daysOct 103
Labour Thanksgiving Day, 3 daysNov 213
New YearJan 13
Coming of Age Day, 3 daysJan 93
Vernal Equinox, 3 daysMar 203
Golden WeekMay 15
Marine Day, 3 daysJul 173
Respect for the Aged Day, 3 daysSep 183
Sports Day, 3 daysOct 93
Coming of Age Day, 3 daysJan 83
National Foundation Day, 3 daysFeb 113
- Nov 7SatBusyroom↑
- Nov 14SatBusyroom↑
- Nov 22SunBusyroom↑
- Nov 28SatBusyroom↑
- Dec 25FriBusyroom↑
- Dec 26SatPackedroom↑
- Dec 27SunBusyroom↓
- Dec 28MonBusyroom↓
- Jan 2SatBusyroom↑
- Mar 13SatBusyroom↑
- Mar 20SatBusyroom↑
- Mar 21SunVernal EquinoxPackedroom↑
- Mar 26FriBusyroom↑
- Mar 27SatPackedroom↑
- Mar 28SunBusyroom↓
- Mar 29MonBusyroom↓
- Nov 6SatBusyroom↑
- Nov 13SatBusyroom↑
- Nov 20SatBusyroom↑
- Nov 27SatBusyroom↑
- Dec 25SatPackedroom↑
- Dec 26SunBusyroom↓
- Dec 27MonBusyroom↓
- Dec 31FriBusyroom↑
- Feb 12SatPackedroom↑
🎌 3 of the 7 busiest days sit inside a run!
7 days reach the top level, and 3 of them sit inside a run of three days or more. There are only 15 such runs in the year, yet the peaks pile into them.
Include the level below and you get 32 days. Cutting the runs first is the most efficient trim. Peaks do form outside them, so it is not enough on its own.
🏆 The pick was the last day in all 15 runs!?
Find the softest day inside each of the 15 runs and the answer is the last day, every time. Not once did a day in the middle come out softest.
Day three of a three-day run, day 5 of a 5-day run. The first and middle days still have time off ahead of them. The last day is followed by a workday, so both the demand for a room and the room to linger drop away.
📆 Shifting one day outside beats picking a day inside
Inside a run the last day is softest, but stepping outside drops further. Averaged across the 15 runs the first day reads Normal and the last Fairly easy — while the day after the run ends reads Normal, a level below the last day.
The day before the run also came in lower than its first day in all 6 of the 15 runs. Choosing a day inside a run is hunting for low ground on the tallest hill. Move one day either side and you beat anything available inside.
🏖️ Summer break is not the busy one — Obon is!
Compare the breaks on weekdays only and summer reads Packed — barely different from an ordinary weekday with no holiday and no break. Across 0 days of it.
The spike is the 14 days of Obon, and nothing else. Those climb to Fairly easy. It is not "summer break is busy". It is "Obon is busy".
🚀 Treating the three breaks as one thing costs you!
Levelled on weekdays: winter Fairly busy, spring Fairly busy, summer Packed. Winter is the strongest and sits 2 level(s) above summer.
By length it is 0 days of summer, 28 of winter, 34 of spring. Longer does not mean busier. What the weekday itself does takes an article of its own.
| Break | Weekdays only | All days |
|---|---|---|
| Summer | Packed | Packed |
| Winter | Fairly busy | Fairly busy |
| Spring | Fairly busy | Busy |
🎯 If the run is fixed, the last day is the floor!
For anyone who cannot drop the run itself, here is the size of the trim. First days and last days average 1 level(s) apart, and the last day lands at Fairly easy. Before writing the run off, move to the last day inside it.
There is a floor to it, though. 51 days of the year fall inside a run, and taken one by one the softest of them still reads Easy. Stay inside a run and nothing below that level is on the table.
The 12 runs still ahead are listed at the top of this page, grouped by run with the softest day marked. If your run is already fixed, that list is all you need.
Last updated: 2026-09-01
othree / CC BY 2.0📅[Weekday visitors] Why are all 143 quietest days Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday?Monday is the busiest weekday — busier than Sunday. So much for "Mondays are quiet." Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday tie for quietest.
Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0📊[Flexible dates] July vs November: how much does it change?February is the busiest month, two steps above the quietest. Autumn and January run quiet. Compared on plain weekdays, holidays and breaks removed.
othree / CC BY 2.0🔍[Accuracy check] We checked two years of data. How did it do?Is "just avoid weekends" good enough? We scored our forecast against two years of measured data. Rank correlation 0.599, against 0.114 for avoiding weekends.
Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🔥[Before you pick a date] Only 7 days a year hit the top level?Of the 724 days we forecast, only 7 reach the top level. The peaks gather on weekends and public holidays, so a small shift in date moves it.
othree / CC BY 2.0📏[Reading the levels] How many minutes separate "Busy" from "Fairly busy"?"Busy" and "Fairly busy" sound alike, but at Tokyo Disneyland the longest queue differs by 25 minutes. All 7 levels, in minutes.
othree / CC BY 2.0🆚[Choosing by crowd level] Same yearly average, yet 198 days split?Land and Sea average the same level for the year, yet 198 of 724 days split — 101 with Sea higher, 97 with Land. Averaging hides it.
Disney crowd forecast