🧭 [First trip] 463 days sit at or below the yearly average — how do you get to one?

A first trip is hard to pin down precisely because any date will do. Fix the order you decide in rather than starting from a date, and the candidates fall away one at a time, each for a reason you can still name afterwards.

On a first trip, fixing the order you decide in is the fastest route. The 724 days we cover run from Easy to Packed, 5 steps of the seven. 463 of them, 64%, sit at or below the yearly average. Work through crowd level, weekday, holiday runs, then room rates.

The table shows 40 of the 534 days still ahead, quietest first. The levels are values we predict; they are not a headcount of who actually went.

• Sep 15TueEasyroom↓
• Sep 16WedEasyroom↓
• Sep 17ThuEasyroom↓
• Sep 18FriEasyroom↑
• Sep 19SatEasyroom↑
• Sep 23WedAutumn EquinoxEasyroom↓
• Sep 24ThuEasyroom↓
• Sep 25FriEasyroom↑
• Sep 27SunEasyroom↓
• Sep 29TueEasyroom↓
• Sep 30WedEasyroom↓
• Jan 11MonComing of Age DayEasyroom↓
• May 5WedChildren's DayEasyroom↓
• Jul 1ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 2FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 4SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 5MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 6TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 7WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 8ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 9FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 11SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 12MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 13TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 14WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 15ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 16FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 17SatEasyroom↑
• Jul 19MonMarine DayEasyroom↓
• Jul 20TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 21WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 22ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 23FriEasyroom↑
• Jul 24SatEasyroom↑
• Jul 25SunEasyroom↓
• Jul 26MonEasyroom↓
• Jul 27TueEasyroom↓
• Jul 28WedEasyroom↓
• Jul 29ThuEasyroom↓
• Jul 30FriEasyroom↑

🧭 Get the order right and the date picks itself!

We currently forecast 724 days. The lowest reads Easy, the highest Packed: 5 of the seven steps.

The first decision is not a date. It is the crowd level you are willing to accept. Weekday, holiday runs and room rates then stack on top, and every candidate that drops out drops out for a stated reason. Start from "I want to go on this date" and you spend all your room before the first check.

📊 Step one: name the level you can accept!?

The yearly average across the range is Normal. 463 days, 64%, sit at or below it. The Easy band alone holds 143 days, 20%.

Averaged by month, the lowest is July at Easy and the highest is March at Busy. Loosening your accepted level by one step adds candidates in bulk. Crowds by month goes finer than this.

📅 Step two: pick the weekday?

Averaged by weekday, the lowest is Thursday at Normal and the highest is Saturday at Normal.

The 517 days from Monday to Friday average Normal; the 207 weekend days average Normal. Moving one day across the week can beat moving the whole month. Follow the weekday detail through crowds by weekday.

🎌 Step three: check a holiday run has not swallowed it!

The range carries 35 public holidays. A run pulls the weekdays around it in too, so a date you picked as an ordinary weekday can end up inside one. Ahead of today the highest day is Dec 26 (Sat) at Packed.

After the weekday is chosen, always check whether that date falls inside a run. Holidays and holiday runs holds that line-up.

🏨 Step four: lay the room rates over the top!

238 nights push room rates up and 486 pull them down. That side runs on its own logic, not on the park's.

Days where the park is quiet and the room is not expensive do survive all four filters. Ahead of today the lowest day is Sep 15 (Tue) at Easy. Park crowds and room rates unpicks the rate side.

• othree / CC BY 2.0🗓️[Before you book] Tickets stop at two months, forecasts do not!Tickets stop two months out, Disney hotels four. Our forecast runs past both, so you can settle the date before anything goes on sale. Here is the order.
• othree / CC BY 2.0📍[June 15 plans] Only 2 June 15ths are in the forecast — what can they show?Only 2 June 15ths sit inside our forecast window: Jun 15, 2026 at Normal, Jun 15, 2027 at Fairly easy, on different weekdays. Too few days for an average.
• othree / CC BY 2.0🌙[Staying till close] 19 early closes, and most of them on Friday?Of the 696 entries we hold, 19 close before the usual 21:00, and 16 of those fall on Friday. The data has no field for the reason, so we do not give one.
• othree / CC BY 2.0🌆[Arriving late] Walk in at 15:00 and a short date costs you 50% of what is left?Opening is fixed at 09:00, so a standard day runs 720 minutes and the shortest 540. Those 180 minutes all come off the evening: 50% of a late arrival.
• othree / CC BY 2.0📌[Only free on holidays] 35 holidays against 485 weekdays — how many steps apart?Across 35 public holidays the average is Normal; the 485 ordinary weekdays average Normal. The same step — and the bands still overlap.
• Dick Thomas Johnson / CC BY 2.0🎊[If you avoid holidays] 18 of 35 holidays stay under the yearly average?Of the 35 public holidays we cover, 18 (51%) never rise above the yearly average, while 12 nights push room rates up. Holidays only, counted one by one.